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tv   The Call  CNBC  September 18, 2009 11:00am-12:00pm EDT

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have numbers on swine flu, what multiple do you put on that. the flu, the vaccine is going to be around for years. that's 25 cents. that isn't in consensus, that goes on. 3% added on, i'll take that versus the panic that's built into the stock price with the health care debate. >> ten seconds. one more name. >> i think it's actually the banks in general. austin private. good little name that's turning things around and keycorp. >> now you know. >> he did it exactly in ten seconds. that's all the time we've got. today and for the week. i'm off on monday. >> time for "the call." the treasury is letting a year old money market program expire saying it's no longer
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necessary. it also says taxpayers made a $1.2 billion profit on it. barclays says the feds will start hiking interest rates. that's cnbc.com news now and. welcome to "the call." we're 90 minutes into the trading day. stocks continue into the green. we'll discuss whether stocks are a better play than bonds. could there finally be an xat strategy from congress? this is "the call." we are cnbc. stocks continuing to move higher as investors show no signs of being bearish.
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proctor and gamble, google, take a look at how they're trading. the dow is up 42 points. 9824 the last trade. the s&p up as well by about three points. the nasdaq also positive territory. >> we are slowly grinding higher. we're a point or so away from new highs of the year. how much cash is there on the sideline? you hear people every day coming on our air saying that. the answer is it looks like there's still substantial cash, but not as much as a while ago. how you quantify it, take the percentage of money market funds to u.s. equity capitalization. right now, it's about 30%. money market funds are about 30% of u.s. equity capitalization. it was 50%. way back in march.
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the average is 20%. the answer is still cash on the sidelines, just not as much. that's what's been happening here this week. fairly good week for some of the major names. some of the homebuilders and financials. fortune brands is a good example. positive comments this week about the overall business. they make faucets and cabinets. that stock had a great run this week. goldman upgraded it earlier this week. similar situation with the rest of the homebuilders. we've had positive comments through the the week. this morning jpmorgan was upgraded. they talk about the over all improvement in the home business. that phrase, something we've heard a lot in the last two weeks.
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brian? >> we are up, eight of ten. thank you very much. we've flip-flopped on either side of flat. google up. research -- putting a price target of 600 on it. also, the digital book deal back in court and there's clam moring about getting the eu involved. research in motion up. new price target on apple, which is 220 and oracle up. yahoo! down. it's moving the stock, but they're having terrible luck in china, not doing well in all. down 2.4%. palm, of course it had earnings and 16 million shares issued through goldman sachs.
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the chips have not really participated in the recent rally the last couple of days. they are today. the index up 1.2%. san disk up -- speaking of upgrades, goldman sachs really giving e-trade a pop. they're a buy. and then dragging down charles schaub. discount brokers, obviously a little decoupling there. they're doing well in terms of numbers, but goldman sees something better with e-trade. stocks are moving higher as monthly and quarterly options contracts expired today. money market funds guaranteed by the government also expired today. and did you hear jimmy cramer on "mad money" last night? >> the run in treasuries, which i have plooefed in for a long
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time, is over. i am calling the top in treasuries right here, right now, at this moment. it's time to sell, sell, sell your ten-year and 30-year treasure is. >> i think he's right. so, stocks or bonds? let's ask steve and barren james. and a.j. for barclays capital. is that the right trade in your judgment? >> that's been the advice we've been giving our clients. you've seen this fear trade move into a safe haven. post lehman, you really saw anything that had remote risk characteristic, even fixed income with exposure to credit space, be sold out of for a number of reasons. a lot of those places have been
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looking top pi for a long time. i don't see any reason to change our p perspective. >> very embedded in this is the idea of inflation and that the fed is raising rates. i don't know when the fed would be raising rates myself. >> well, i don't know that i know that either, but the fed is already cutting the money base, so they are expecting future inflation. i go with the bonds. our bond indications are super strong. we see risks are very high. previous rallies of this magnitude in the past have petered out and you've got a lot of indications of risks. purchases of sales to mutual funds near a five-year high. the sentiment levels are high. there's just a lot of pieces of the puzzle that people are really excited about stocks and we're probably going to have a
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correction in bonds will be a better place to be. >> as a fixed income bond guy, let me get your take. and what about corporates? don't they have a sense of businesses healing may outperform? >> this is true, but they've had a nice run over the last six months or so. what we like is -- cash and equity. the treasury yesterday evening -- hiking in september 2010 and on the back of that, it's very, very unlikely that -- >> barry, i want to go back to some of your thoughts. you think that the low vix is an indication that volatility is coming and that high sentiment is an indication that everyone's wrong? >> well, it's just when you reach an end of something, you get everybody on one side of the equation.
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if you look at sentiment levels, the difference between bulls and bears are back at the peak as they were in 2007. you look at insiders, about 30-0. folks are somewhat complacent towards stocks. they're moving aggressively into them. the studies we've shown is that when you have this kind of a move in stocks in the past, very, very rapid in a very short period of time, it doesn't just keep on running. it has a period of consolidation or pullback. in some cases, 30 to 40%. we see the risks today in stocks are high and the risks in bonds are pretty low. if we're right, we'll do okay. if we're wrong, the other guys will make a lot of money. >> you look at the fundamentals. gdp is going to be, the u.s. peso is falling. the fed is not going to tighten
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in my lifetime. don't you want to get the heck out of the treasuries and stay in equities? and richard bernstein said go for the lower quality stocks. >> i'm not going to disagree. if you look at what the opportunities are, because it's a risk-reward assessment, and i think this is going to be an active management environment. we still like certain areas of corporate space. i think the treasuries are predominantly a risk for many right now, but i think this is going to be a nice put. three inches in a cloud of dust, name by name, balance sheet by balance sheet. fixed income side, vintage by vintage. >> this is good, one step at a time. >> it's supposed to be that way. >> this is actually an orderly market on the rise. >> yeah, and for those who have a better, more disciplined, long-term strategic investment
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process, you'd expect longer term. >> i don't know. i'm getting worried about inflation again. should i buy spreads? >> yes, we think ten are very cheap. only about a quarter of a percent of inflation built into that. we still think it's a good time to buy tips. >> raj, can i ask you about this money market fund. i saw a story, is that going to be a big deal and is that going into stocks? >> it won't be a big deal, but the reason the money is moving out of these funds is for all the right reasons. it's not moving out because of guarantees. it's moving out because people no longer feel compelled to keep their money in a money market
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fund. there's another point i would like to make, which is the big reason why treasuries wouldn't ride this next year is simply because the fed is not going to buy $1.7 trillion of fixed income paper. >> you think the fed has put a bid under treasuries? and maybe some international guys, too? >> i don't see how you cannot come to the conclusion, the u.s. bond market issued $2.5 billion of paper in 2009. then the fed took out 1.7 billion of that. all of a sudden, it's way less than what hit the markets in '06. >> when you look at the u.s. peso falling every single day, isn't there a loss of confidence? >> currencies are all relative
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sh so we're doing less of an under contest now, but there's a lot of -- and i think the european, the ecb has no growth mandate, so there's going to be a discipline coming out of europe and asia, which is really going to force bernanke's hand. we're talking about prices of money. this week, we saw a sale of toxic assets coming up on bank balance sheets. that's not a trivial situation. >> we're going talk about that later in the show. thanks to all three of you. coming up, ten house members are supporting new legislation to unwind t.a.r.p. we'll talk with spencer baucus, who introduced the new plan. but first, the dog days of the u.s. dollar. is the prolonged weakness good for u.s. business? i don't want to demean the mexican peso, but you are watching cnbc and it is first in
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business worldwide.
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the dollar moving higher, that pushing commodities higher. right now, the dollar is trading higher on the day. it's up about .3 of a percent.
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could that be good for businesses? let's bring in our guests. thanks to both of you for joining us. david, let me start with you. i know one business this is good for. american carmakers. is another way to support the auto industry. who else would benefit from a weak dollar? >> anyone that's earning revenues overseas. those get translated back into dollars assuming it's not a hedged currency strategy, are going to end up with more dollars on their balance sheet. that's what's helping stocks more currently. if you listen to most of your broadcasts, people are talking about the weak dollar supporting equity prices. there's some benefits there. it's not great if you're traveling, if you're an importer, but it's helping some business and give it context. we're still in a low-inflation
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environment. >> david, i agree with your other stuff. in light of what david is saying, is the fed and treasury and white house deliberately nurturing happy, drawing back a vodka martini in celebration of this because they think we're western europe and japan. is this a new, economic model? >> i would call it the u.s. yen rather than peso because we're acting exactly like the japanese yen. we seem to be turning japanese from fiscal, monetary policies -- >> but the end doesn't fall every day. that's why i call it the u.s. peso. 11 straight days until today? that can't be good. don't ask me why. >> i want to know why. >> historically, if you're dollar goes down, the run
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against your currency, it signals inflation, could be signalling the end of the u.s. dollar as reserve currency. >> what i mean by the u.s. dollar being the yen is that the dollar has become the yen carry trade. we had $1 trillion from 2000 to 2007 and now, it's converting to the dollar because the market sees the dollar as the cheaper funding currency. that is why you're seeing such weakness. now, the fed had made a very concerted decision to weaken the dollar to reclaim u.s. assets. it is helping. the dow jones 30, they're multinational stocks. coke, mcdonald's, starbucks. the key thing is you can't make this into a run away train. once you lose control, that's when it can become a serious problem. >> why is it a serious problem
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in the long run? >> yesterday, we had data out of the fed that shows what people are doing with treasuries. the banks took in 31 billion in treasuries last week. boosted their earnings to over $2 trillion. that's very significant. there's a sort of natural safety net that has a lot to do with currency management. >> you think that's enough to not worry about the scenario that boris is saying? >> last week, they complained about the potential risks? >> that's incredible. i've never heard her express an inflation worry. >> i remain an inflation skeptic because retail demand is still not there. final consumer demand is very, very tepid and that is a major
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deflati deflationary aspect. >> but haven't we seen this movie before in the 1970s? all the brilliant kenzian thinkers in washington said not to worry, the dollar is sinking, gold is rising. but guess what? we should have worried. >> i think the situation is different. more like the movie of the 1990s, with japan, where we keep printing money. i'm talking about -- >> give robert rubin credit. bill clinton. larry summers. >> i'm not talking about u.s. '90s, japan '90s. my point is our currency has become like the japanese yen in the '90s. >> sure, just print -- >> we can worry about a lot of things, but i think you have to
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look for signs of confidence loss in the u.s. dollar and that would be higher treasury yields. amazing thing through this rally of stocks, treasuries aren't selling off. there's a continuous bid. >> i'm back cramer on this. >> we got to go, guys. >> i did. i love stocks. run down, boom, boom, boom. >> treasuries. done. up next -- one year after our historic government intervention, the signs are flashing that an economic recovery is upon us. i agree so. did washington get it right? and it may have taken a year, but lawmakers are ready to set up an exit strategy. we have spencer baucus on his legislation to unwind. ♪ look at this man
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we're watching shares of obey. reports are that skype is suing. on the day, ebay is essentially flat. today marks the end of the federal government's guarantee. just one of several emergency measures including the bank bailout fund better known as t.a.r.p. that was pushed by ben bernanke,
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henry paulson, one year ago. so, our question, did washington get it right. we have the dreirector on financial studies -- mark, i know you're not happy with this and you were on his staff a year ago, but a year later, almost every metric has really improved from stocked to spreads to money rates and everything else. isn't this story so totally better today? >> well, the question is whether that's due to the t.a.r.p. or not. it's difficult to say the t.a.r.p. caused all that. even the purposes of the t.a.r.p., remember what the tna was for? troubled assets. do we still have those? we do. >> i would actually disagree with that because chuck, either of you, if you look at if fund, the price of those assets has
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gone up even before p-pip started. the government hasn't really put that money to work and already, the price of those are going up in anticipation of what people are going to pay. that's genious. >> the t.a.r.p. itself was never used -- >> what do you mean it's largely shut down the p-pip? >> it's not even anywhere near the size it was to start out with. the t.a.r.p., we were going to purchase 700 billion in troubled assets. we didn't. >> but people have already paid back t.a.r.p. funds. the government is making money on what's out there. >> we need to be very clear. we are going to lose, according to cbo, half o the t.a.r.p. money will not come back. you can choose a couple of things that have been good investments, but most of it's
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gone. >> thank you for being patient. chuck, i want to ask you, at the end of the day, the fed, treasury, fdic guarantees an interbank deposit, a zero interest rate. when you put it all together on top of the bank capital injections, chuck, did we get the job done? the evidence a year later says we did. >> i think you're right. obviously, mark's right that the original purpose of t.a.r.p. changed. >> is calling it audible such bad thing? eli manning standing over the line. he calls inaudible. is that sauch bad thing? >> it's not the question of whether they got it right, it's they didn't make it wrong.
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for the most part, they stepped aside and did ultimately ratify the deposit guarantees. most activity came from very innovative activity on behalf of the fed. the congress has had a dialectic that goes back to just after the elections in 2006 on mortgages, subprime loans, forclosure mitigation and that kind of thing. that continues and now as we go into the regulatory reform part of the debate, we're starting to see that shift into more overdrive. so you know, the combination of all this threatened activity from the congress, the regulators push the ball on their own, congress not following through on threats like mortgage cram-down and other bank reforms, other changes, it has really worked. >> does all this intervention, and it would have been intervention with t.a.r.p. on
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capital injections, all of a sudden, uncle sam is deeply involved. you saw the headlines today. bottom line, mark, too much intervention, too much socialism, too much bailout nation? >> i think there's been way too much intervention and to buy into the argument that none of this would recover, you have to have the argument that markets don't recover at all. take the housing market. if prices come down far enough, you get buyers back into the market. because that's how markets recover. you either have to believe there's no self-recovery motion in the market at all to believe these interventions did it. the old -- you can say it was going to happen, we were going to have a recovery at some point and we're still all the way
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there, but you're going to have millions involved in real estate construction lose their jobs regardless of what they did. >> appreciate it. >> what have we gwrought. sorry. >> one year later and we're finally seeing plans for a t.a.r.p. exit strategy. spencer bauchus is up next. you're watching cnbc, first in business worldwide.
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welcome back to "the call." sheila bair speaking out this morning. she said bank regulators will meet at the end of the month to explore options for replenishing the dwindling funds that safeguard bank deposits. hampton pearson has more. >> she's also saying that one option being considered is perhaps borrowing from the treasury. that is one of the options as far as replenishing that insurance funds. bair, one of the three major headliners here at an all-day symposium on global finance. at the top of the agenda, u.s. regulatory reform, key points from the fdic chair, reform must rest the issue of too big to fail and the fdic insurance is not big enough to handle systemic risk firms and
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assistance must not be used to prop up firms. >> make no mistake, i support the actions we took to stabilize the financial system. lack in process, we did what we had to do, but going forward, open bank assistance should not be used to prop up a firm, only to give system-wide support. >> on the question of mark to market accounting and toxic assets, she says good for security firms, but does not work as far as the banks are concerned. we will hear from s.e.c. chief and president obama's top economic adviser, larry summers. >> thanks so much. he's offering legislation to exit the t.a.r.p. program. it's the first we've had of an exit strategy. joining us live from his home state of alabama is republican
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congressman, spencer bauchus. thank you so much for joining us. let me ask you, it does look like you're making some pretty good money lending this out. i'm reading an article that says the interest exceeds about 15%. why do you want to get out? >> well, we're not actually the purchasing plan. we're exiting the investments in the four large companies where the government has ownership of over 15%. you're actually talking about the dividend program which pays 5% interest and includes warrants. those are being paid back. this is another component. it wasn't a part of the september act. if you recall, after that, the fed and treasury injectioned billions into aig, general motors and it is those companies we're addressing.
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>> you've got citi, bank of america, mr. bauchus, how do you do this? you create a trust, which i reckon is in your legislation. will that be managed by blackrock, pimco? >> it will be three independent trustees, which will have no connection with each other. they have to have professional management abilities. probably be former ceos. and the timeline will be december 2011, so we get an orderly exit, but i think what it does, larry, more than anything else, it ends the political interference we've all seen. probably it's reached with general motors. >> what has the reception been like? >> senator warner, senator
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carper, corker of tennessee -- >> but how about the company sns. >> oh, what is there -- i'm sorry. you know, i believe by and large, they want an orderly exit. really, i don't think they can successfully recover and pay the government back if the government is going to try to run their business and dictate their business plan. >> you see the lead article in the "wall street journal" and elsewhere. bankers face sweeping curves on pay. is that the kind of intervention by government that troubles you? >> larry, you start with the problem and the problem was we all know that there were compensation packages that created incentives for executives to take outsized risks. having said that, why are we
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aabandoning a model for america? we've got the largest economy in the world and we didn't get that by government management of micromanaging companies setting compensation. you talk to high school students, you ask them what's the biggest economy in the world. they'll tell you china. it's the united states. i don't think we appreciate what our free market system has done. our capitalistic system. it seems as if we're running away from what made us great. that was individual initiative, private ownership and competition. not government control. not government management. not a collective society or so-called utopian society. >> i just want to hone in on fannie and freddie. your thoughts on that. part of your action? part of the cosponsorship? i have not heard any whisper in
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washington about an exit. >> there is one piece of legislation that actually has that in it and it is republican house plan that we introduced about three months ago. we would privatize those companies and make sure that in the future, there was no implied government guarantee. >> congressman -- >> what we've done, we choked out the private sector. you say, well, you know, they handle most of the mortgage. they do, but they're subsidized by the government. >> and does it worry you they're making loans with 3 and 5% down? >> oh, absolutely cht it worries me that sense september, although a lot of the companies, there is market discipline and when people have failed and we need to let more people fail. we need to -- we've actually tried to prevent failure and rewarded it where we ought to be rewarding success. >> we're making the same mistake.
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3% down, fan and fred making the same mistake a couple of years back. look at fha, same mistake. 3% down payments. it's sort of like we've learned nothing. we're throwing money at people who can't afford their home. >> that's right. and larry, the biggest losses we'll take is on fannie and freddie. we're going to probably lose our -- the entire bailout of that and that was in july. that wasn't part of the september thing. in fact, they failed two months before september. you know, another thing that you need to pay attention to, and i think you have, is there's been all this instance on lehman and that they failed. well, you know, aig was bailed out. there was not a lot of discussion this week about all the companies that we've bailed out. yes rs we did bail out aig, but
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there's $180 billion yet to be repaid. >> yeah. it will be interesting to see how much of that we get back. thank you for joining us. >> a republican on the house financial services committee. up next, stocks on the move and which ones to watch this afternoon in the trading. plus, the grass may not be greener for much longer. big government turf wars could be coming. we'll be right back. i've been growing algae for 35 years. most people try to get rid of algae, and we're trying to grow it. the algae are very beautiful.
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crude oil is down about 50 cents. it's hanging above 70 bucks a barrel. 71.98 the last trade. it's time for "the call" next. that's on stocks you need watch. matt nesto is here with what's hot and what's not. >> if you were to say what is one of the most ominous overhangs, the commercial real estate, the threat of a whole wave of defaults coming through presuming youl ul agree. take a look at the real estate group. it is the best performer in a week to date basis. what is the market telling you? buy the fear. clearly, this is the group
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that's hot. 80 out of 90 members in the morgan stanley real estate index are higher on the week to day basis. simon property is one of the stocks that has been very, very hot. up almost 20% in the past couple of weeks. also hot and we'll say in the real estate space big picture, the homebuilders. we had an upgrade and both stocks now rated overweight here today. the home boys are having a heck of a week. 9 to 12 of them are up. today, toll brothers not surprisingly the leader of that pack. so find the fear and buy it seems to be working. investors are boldly going forward on that front. >> you got the dime trade for us? >> i got the dime trade. it's going to mess up the elements -- >> sorry. i can't wait for it.
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i jumpbed ahead to it. >> discretionary, materials and energy. on a week to date basis, your four best performaners, the prot taking is contained in those four sectors. if you look at the stocks like gwinnet, up 17% in five days. they're very hot. it's in a two-way fight for the week to date with meredith. on the flip side, coventry health is down 3%. three downgrades this week all in a week when senator baucus, t they're kind of like, we need more. >> what does dime stand for? >> discretionary, material and
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energy. >> you should patton that. >> the roman god of wine? >> "power lunch" -- at the top of the hour. bill griffeth, what do you have for us. >> d-i-m. i'm getting it all down here. we have the ceo of a company in technology you may not have heard of, but they're gobbling up market share in a very critical area of technology. also, get this gang. a year after the fall of lehman brothers, there is still some client money caught up in bankruptry court in the u.k. how much? $50 billion. we'll talk about that coming up. and what's the best way to generate income in your portfol portfolio? a look at that as well. a quick break and then in
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the late '90s, archer daniels was the largest antitrust case in u.s. history. and now the details straight ahead. ♪ must have been one of the strangest days ♪ everyone may face the same uncertainty. ♪ some would say that you won't find ♪ protecting yourself, however, requires good decisions. find strength and stability with mass mutual, a company owned by its policyholders. ask your advisor or visit massmutual.com.
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tonight, the new matt damon,
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sigh, movie opens. it's about a man who spilled the beans on archer daniels midland. he gave his only interview to scott cohn. you've met him, obviously, and you're not surprised it's a comedy. >> i think it's a stroke of genious they turned it into a comedy. who knew -- we'll leave it at thachlt who knew white collar krik could be funny? at the time, there was nothing funny about it at all. it nearly brought down one of the biggest companies in the world. matt damon plays mark whitaker, an employee who blows the whistle. he goes undercover for the fbi, secretly taping his bosses for three years, but it turns out he
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has issues of his own, like the fact he's been stealing millions from the company. >> okay, what have it was st standard practice for executives to accept kickbacks in cash? >> there is the real mark whitaker the same month he was indicted. he gave his only tv interview to us, still insisting that the $9 million in the swiss bank account was given to him by the company. >> with hair. >> we were talking ultimately, millions of dollars going into accounts in switzerland, the cayman islands. >> it was standard operating procedure. most of my money was in switzerland, so i paid swiss
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taxes. >> matt damon put on 20 pounds for the role and so did it. in the movie, he eventually kind of gets off on the role of secret agent. but the fun would not last for mark whitaker. at the depths of the scandal, he tried to kill himself and pleaded guilty to 37 criminal counts. today, he and his wife, ginger, live in florida, where he has the president of a biotech company. he does not shy away from his past. he told a paper in illinois that he and his wife have seen the movie. >> i haven't heard a word you said since i saw that video of you. nice. that's scott cohn. who knew? >> today. you never looked better.
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>> he looks fantastic. wow. >> thank you for that. used to be blame it on the rain. i can't focus. now like blame it on the grass. we mean your front lawn. >> a new plan that could change the landscape across america. >> i think scott's hair looks the same. it's the same.
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the eps is looking to regulate the amount of grass planted on properties for new homes. the industry says the effort will put them in the red. let's get more on the turf war battle. joining us now, wendy bounce. grass is evil. >> right. that's what they would so. the plan is a voluntary plan that builders could use to redus the amount of turf grass. why? how many times have you seen people watering the heck of their yards in the middle of the night or when it's raining? people can get incentives to

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